Alexander Hernandez vs Michael Johnson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record24-20-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72"Reach73"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Alexander Hernandez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Michael Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1725
If they lose-15→ 1701
If they win+15→ 1628
If they lose-9→ 1604
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezMichael Johnson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez77%
Michael Johnson 23%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 77% favorite over Michael Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Alexander Hernandez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1716 to 1613, a 103-point edge.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.
Alexander Hernandez and Michael Johnson share 1 common opponent: Diego Ferreira.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.