Alexander Hernandez vs Rafa García
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-9-0Record19-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
72"Reach70"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamTeam Elevation
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1743
If they lose-12→ 1719
If they win+16→ 1756
If they lose-16→ 1724
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezRafa García
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez55%
Rafa García 45%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 55% favorite over Rafa García in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafa García's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1731 vs 1740), separated by just 9 points.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Rafa García 56%.
Alexander Hernandez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.