Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Hernandez vs Renato Moicano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-0Record21-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
72"Reach72″
148 lbsWeight156 lbs
Factory XTeamFirst Fight Center

What's at stake

Renato Moicano is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alexander Hernandez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexander HernandezNow 1716
If they win+13→ 1729
If they lose-11→ 1705
Renato MoicanoNow 1743
If they win+11→ 1754
If they lose-13→ 1730

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.31
Sig. strikes / min
4.17
41%
Strike accuracy
49%
4.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.57
59%
Strike defense
60%
1.14
Takedown avg.
1.67
36%
Takedown accuracy
42%
73%
Takedown defense
63%
0.09
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Alexander HernandezRenato Moicano
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
2 (11%)
Submission
11 (52%)
8 (44%)
Decision
8 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander Hernandez52%
Renato Moicano 48%Elo baseline: 46%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 52% favorite over Renato Moicano in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Renato Moicano's way (46%).

Renato Moicano holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1743 to 1716, a 27-point edge.

Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Renato Moicano 62%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.