Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Hernandez vs Thiago Moisés

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

18-9-0Record19-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
72"Reach70"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Alexander Hernandez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Thiago Moisés carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexander HernandezNow 1716
If they win+11→ 1727
If they lose-13→ 1703
Thiago MoisésNow 1683
If they win+13→ 1696
If they lose-11→ 1672

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.31
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
41%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.08
59%
Strike defense
53%
1.14
Takedown avg.
1.31
36%
Takedown accuracy
36%
73%
Takedown defense
53%
0.09
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Alexander HernandezThiago Moisés
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
4 (21%)
2 (11%)
Submission
8 (42%)
8 (44%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander Hernandez60%
Thiago Moisés 40%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 60% favorite over Thiago Moisés in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Alexander Hernandez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1716 to 1683, a 33-point edge.

Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.

Alexander Hernandez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.