Alexander Hernandez vs Thiago Moisés
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-9-0Record19-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
72"Reach70"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Alexander Hernandez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Thiago Moisés carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1741
If they lose-14→ 1717
If they win+14→ 1699
If they lose-10→ 1675
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezThiago Moisés
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez68%
Thiago Moisés 32%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 68% favorite over Thiago Moisés in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Alexander Hernandez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1731 to 1685, a 46-point edge.
Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.
Alexander Hernandez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.