Alexis Tsarmantidis vs Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo63%
Alexis Tsarmantidis 37%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo a 63% favorite over Alexis Tsarmantidis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1680 to 1599, a 81-point edge.
Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Alexis Tsarmantidis finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
7-3-0Record10-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'9"
-Reach-
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
Diversity teamTeamAurora MMA· 1562 avg Elo · 15 rated
What's at stake
Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Alexis Tsarmantidis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1619
If they lose-12→ 1587
If they win+12→ 1692
If they lose-20→ 1660
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexis TsarmantidisGiuseppe Mastrogiacomo