Ali Bagov vs Bo Nickal
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Bo Nickal64%
Ali Bagov 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Bo Nickal a 64% favorite over Ali Bagov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1744 vs 1745), separated by just 1 points.
Bo Nickal enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ali Bagov finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Bo Nickal 89%.
Bo Nickal carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
35-13-0Record9-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'1"
69.7"Reach76"
172 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-12→ 1732
If they win+16→ 1761
If they lose-16→ 1729
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ali BagovBo Nickal