Combat Edge Intelligence

Aljamain Sterling vs Movsar Evloev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-5-0Record20-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
71"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aljamain SterlingNow 1856
If they win+12→ 1868
If they lose-12→ 1844
Movsar EvloevNow 1859
If they win+16→ 1875
If they lose-16→ 1843

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1780 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.45
Sig. strikes / min
3.91
53%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
60%
Strike defense
61%
2.45
Takedown avg.
4.78
31%
Takedown accuracy
5%
45%
Takedown defense
61%
0.64
Submission avg.
0.19

Trajectory

Aljamain SterlingMovsar Evloev
18001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (12%)
KO/TKO
3 (15%)
8 (32%)
Submission
4 (20%)
14 (56%)
Decision
13 (65%)

Combat Edge model read

Movsar Evloev66%
Aljamain Sterling 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Movsar Evloev a 66% favorite over Aljamain Sterling in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1856 vs 1859), separated by just 3 points.

Aljamain Sterling enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Movsar Evloev enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Aljamain Sterling finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Movsar Evloev 35%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.