Alvin Hines vs Gabriel Lourenço
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-2-0Record8-1-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
74"Reach76"
260 lbsWeight265 lbs
Jungle Gym MMATeamChute Boxe· 1684 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Gabriel Lourenço is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Alvin Hines carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+28→ 1632
If they lose-20→ 1584
If they win+20→ 1685
If they lose-28→ 1637
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1535 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alvin HinesGabriel Lourenço
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gabriel Lourenço64%
Alvin Hines 36%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Gabriel Lourenço a 64% favorite over Alvin Hines in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Gabriel Lourenço holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1665 to 1604, a 61-point edge.
Alvin Hines enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gabriel Lourenço enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Alvin Hines finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Gabriel Lourenço 88%.
Gabriel Lourenço carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.