Gabriel Lourenço vs Alvin Hines

Nov 7, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast79%Gabriel Lourenço21%Alvin HinesFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 7, 2026

DivisionHeavyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 7, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 10:00 AM
Your time

Gabriel LourençoThe Black Mamba |8-1-0Gabriel Lourenço vs Alvin HinesAlvin HinesGoozie |7-2-0

Gabriel LourençoThe Black Mamba8-1-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

8-1-0Record7-2-0

27Age34

6'2"Height6'2"

76"Reach74"

265 lbsWeight260 lbs

HeavyweightWeight ClassHeavyweight

Alvin HinesGoozie7-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Gabriel Lourenço owns a 61-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Gabriel Lourenço and Alvin Hines across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Gabriel LourençoAlvin Hines

Recent form

Gabriel LourençoW W W W W · +105 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Alvin HinesL L W W W · +5 Elo last 5

LLWWW

Elo edge

Gabriel Lourenço1665+26 last move

Alvin Hines1604-30 last move

Why they are ranked here

Gabriel Lourenço#60 of 173 active Heavyweight fighters · 1665 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Bruno Land (rated 1500 at the time): +31.
Costliest loss: Lost to Igor Cavalcanti (rated 1542 at the time): -25.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +105 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #59 Kennedy Nzechukwu, 0 ahead of #61 Mick Parkin.

Alvin Hines#109 of 173 active Heavyweight fighters · 1604 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Phillip Latu (rated 1549 at the time): +33.
Costliest loss: Lost to RJ Harris (rated 1624 at the time): -30.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +5 Elo in total.
Next places: 4 points behind #108 Jose Augusto, 0 ahead of #110 Karl Williams.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

79%Gabriel Lourenço21%Alvin Hines

Model favoriteGabriel Lourenço

Elo baseline59% for Gabriel Lourenço

Matchup adjustment+20 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Gabriel LourençoStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Gabriel Lourenço leads the full model at 79%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 20 points.

Current Elo ratings1665 · 1604Gabriel Lourenço leads by 61 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1511 · 1535Alvin Hines faced the stronger recent schedule (9 vs 9 sampled fights).

Elo record depth9 · 9 fightsThe published ratings use the same number of counted fights.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Gabriel LourençoNow 1665 · #60 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+20→ 1685

Loses by decision-28→ 1637

Alvin HinesNow 1604 · #109 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+28→ 1632

Loses by decision-20→ 1584

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Gabriel LourençovsAlvin Hines

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Gabriel LourençoKO/TKO leads 75% of wins

Alvin HinesKO/TKO leads 43% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Gabriel LourençoAlvin Hines

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per min5.58

UFC heavyweight average : 3.77

Not availableSig. strike accuracy33

UFC heavyweight average : 49%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per min7.62

UFC heavyweight average : 3.92

Not availableSig. strike defense39

UFC heavyweight average : 51%

Not availableTakedown average0.90

UFC heavyweight average : 1.40

Not availableTakedown accuracy10

UFC heavyweight average : 30%

Not availableTakedown defense0

UFC heavyweight average : 53%

Not availableSubmission average0

UFC heavyweight average : 0.44

6Wins by knockout3

1Wins by submission3

1Wins by decision1

1Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision1

Gabriel Lourenço vs Alvin Hines is a scheduled Heavyweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : BONFIM VS BRADY. Gabriel Lourenço enters with a 8-1-0 record and Alvin Hines enters with a 7-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.