Amirkhan Adaev vs Thiago Moisés
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Moisés66%
Amirkhan Adaev 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Moisés a 66% favorite over Amirkhan Adaev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1686), separated by just 1 points.
Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Amirkhan Adaev finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
23-7-0Record19-10-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
-Reach70"
157 lbsWeight155 lbs
Berkut FC· 1632 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1697
If they lose-12→ 1673
If they win+12→ 1698
If they lose-12→ 1674
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1581 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Amirkhan AdaevThiago Moisés