Andrea Lee vs Ashlee Evans-Smith
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-11-0Record6-6-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
69"Reach67,5"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Karate MafiaTeamReign MMA
What's at stake
Andrea Lee is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Ashlee Evans-Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1591
If they lose-19→ 1559
If they win+19→ 1541
If they lose-13→ 1509
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andrea LeeAshlee Evans-Smith
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Andrea Lee60%
Ashlee Evans-Smith 40%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Andrea Lee a 60% favorite over Ashlee Evans-Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Andrea Lee holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1578 to 1522, a 56-point edge.
Andrea Lee enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Ashlee Evans-Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Andrea Lee finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Ashlee Evans-Smith 50%.
Andrea Lee carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.