Andreas Gustafsson vs Daniil Donchenko
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-3-0Record14-2-0
MiddleweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'11"
73"Reach71"
185 lbsWeight155 lbs
Vasteras Fight ClubTeamTiger Muay Thai
What's at stake
Daniil Donchenko is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Andreas Gustafsson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1679
If they lose-14→ 1647
If they win+14→ 1724
If they lose-18→ 1692
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andreas GustafssonDaniil Donchenko
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Daniil Donchenko79%
Andreas Gustafsson 21%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Daniil Donchenko a 79% favorite over Andreas Gustafsson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Daniil Donchenko holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1661, a 49-point edge.
Daniil Donchenko enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Andreas Gustafsson finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Daniil Donchenko 79%.
Andreas Gustafsson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.