Daniil Donchenko vs Andreas Gustafsson

Jun 27, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast73%Daniil Donchenko27%Andreas GustafssonFull forecast

DateJun 27, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueNational Gymnastics Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, June 27, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 12:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 9:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 5:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 6:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 2:00 AM
Your time

Daniil Donchenko15-2-0Daniil Donchenko vs Andreas GustafssonAndreas GustafssonBane |12-3-0

Daniil Donchenko15-2-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

15-2-0Record12-3-0

25Age35

5'11"Height6'1"

71"Reach 73"

155 lbsWeight185 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Andreas GustafssonBane12-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Daniil Donchenko owns a 59-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Daniil Donchenko and Andreas Gustafsson across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Daniil DonchenkoAndreas Gustafsson

Recent form

Daniil DonchenkoW W W W W · +79 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Andreas GustafssonL W W W W · +39 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Elo edge

Daniil Donchenko1724+16 last move

Andreas Gustafsson1665-13 last move

Why they are ranked here

Daniil Donchenko#49 of 332 active Welterweight fighters · 1724 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Sang Kwon Han (rated 1500 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Kanybek Zhanybek uulu (rated 1470 at the time): -35.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +79 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #48 Patrick Habirora, 0 ahead of #50 Zhakshylyk Myrzabekov.

Andreas Gustafsson#110 of 332 active Welterweight fighters · 1665 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat David Hošek (rated 1604 at the time): +28.
Costliest loss: Lost to Damian Janikowski (rated 1514 at the time): -27.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +39 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #109 Adam Darby, 0 ahead of #111 Baysangur Chamsoudinov.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v3-2026-06-10

73%Daniil Donchenko27%Andreas Gustafsson

Model favoriteDaniil Donchenko

Elo baseline55% for Daniil Donchenko

Matchup adjustment+18 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Daniil DonchenkoStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Daniil Donchenko leads the full model at 73%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 18 points.

Current Elo ratings1724 · 1665Daniil Donchenko leads by 59 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1570 · 1573Andreas Gustafsson faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth17 · 15 fightsDaniil Donchenko has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesDaniil Donchenko 2 · 2 Andreas GustafssonStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Andreas Gustafsson.

What's at stake

Daniil DonchenkoNow 1724 · #49 Welterweight

Wins by decision+13→ 1737

Loses by decision-19→ 1705

Andreas GustafssonNow 1665 · #110 Welterweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1684

Loses by decision-13→ 1652

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Daniil DonchenkovsAndreas Gustafsson

Takedown average

0.58vs6.19

Takedown accuracy

33%vs59%

Sig. strike defense

70%vs46%

Sig. strikes landed per min

8.07vs5.82

Finishing profile

Daniil DonchenkoKO/TKO leads 60% of wins

Andreas GustafssonKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Daniil DonchenkoAndreas Gustafsson

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

8.07Sig. strikes landed per min5.82

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

62Sig. strike accuracy72

UFC lightweight average : 46%

2.80Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.63

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

70Sig. strike defense46

UFC lightweight average : 53%

0.58Takedown average6.19

UFC lightweight average : 1.68

33Takedown accuracy59

UFC lightweight average : 28%

75Takedown defense100

UFC lightweight average : 59%

0Submission average0

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

9Wins by knockout8

2Wins by submission2

4Wins by decision2

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision2

Daniil Donchenko vs Andreas Gustafsson is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : FIZIEV VS TORRES. Daniil Donchenko enters with a 15-2-0 record and Andreas Gustafsson enters with a 12-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.