Combat Edge Intelligence

Andreas Gustafsson vs Ernesto Rodriguez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-3-0Record11-2-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'9"
73"Reach73"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Vasteras Fight ClubTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andreas GustafssonNow 1667
If they win+16→ 1683
If they lose-16→ 1651
Ernesto RodriguezNow 1665
If they win+16→ 1681
If they lose-16→ 1649

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1578 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.82
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
72%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
46%
Strike defense
TBD
6.19
Takedown avg.
TBD
59%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
100%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Andreas GustafssonErnesto Rodriguez
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (67%)
KO/TKO
3 (27%)
2 (17%)
Submission
1 (9%)
2 (17%)
Decision
7 (64%)

Combat Edge model read

Ernesto Rodriguez60%
Andreas Gustafsson 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ernesto Rodriguez a 60% favorite over Andreas Gustafsson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andreas Gustafsson's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1667 vs 1665), separated by just 2 points.

Andreas Gustafsson finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Ernesto Rodriguez 36%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.