Andreas Gustafsson vs Rinat Fakhretdinov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-3-0Record24-1-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
73"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight171 lbs
Vasteras Fight ClubTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Rinat Fakhretdinov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Andreas Gustafsson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1684
If they lose-9→ 1652
If they win+9→ 1820
If they lose-23→ 1788
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andreas GustafssonRinat Fakhretdinov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rinat Fakhretdinov85%
Andreas Gustafsson 15%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Rinat Fakhretdinov a 85% favorite over Andreas Gustafsson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Rinat Fakhretdinov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1811 to 1661, a 150-point edge.
Rinat Fakhretdinov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Andreas Gustafsson finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Rinat Fakhretdinov 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.