Anthony Smith vs Mingyang Zhang
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-22-0Record19-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
76"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Factory XTeamQingdao Xinjiang International Fight Club
What's at stake
Anthony Smith is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Mingyang Zhang carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1685
If they lose-13→ 1661
If they win+13→ 1669
If they lose-11→ 1645
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony SmithMingyang Zhang
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mingyang Zhang64%
Anthony Smith 36%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Mingyang Zhang a 64% favorite over Anthony Smith in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Anthony Smith's way (47%).
Anthony Smith holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1656, a 18-point edge.
Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mingyang Zhang enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Anthony Smith finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Mingyang Zhang 100%.
Anthony Smith and Mingyang Zhang share 1 common opponent: Johnny Walker.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.