Combat Edge Intelligence

Antonina Shevchenko vs Katlyn Cerminara

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-4-0Record18-6-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'9"
67"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamTeam Renzo Gracie

What's at stake

Katlyn Cerminara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Antonina Shevchenko carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Antonina ShevchenkoNow 1628
If they win+20→ 1648
If they lose-12→ 1616
Katlyn CerminaraNow 1713
If they win+9→ 1722
If they lose-15→ 1698

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.86
Sig. strikes / min
4.58
55%
Strike accuracy
35%
2.93
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.48
53%
Strike defense
62%
0.43
Takedown avg.
0.31
43%
Takedown accuracy
16%
54%
Takedown defense
50%
0.43
Submission avg.
0.31

Trajectory

Antonina ShevchenkoKatlyn Cerminara
160016501700175020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
2 (11%)
1 (10%)
Submission
1 (6%)
6 (60%)
Decision
15 (83%)

Combat Edge model read

Katlyn Cerminara78%
Antonina Shevchenko 22%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Katlyn Cerminara a 78% favorite over Antonina Shevchenko in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Katlyn Cerminara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1628, a 85-point edge.

Katlyn Cerminara enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Antonina Shevchenko finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Katlyn Cerminara 17%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.