Antonina Shevchenko vs Roxanne Modafferi
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record25-20-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'6"
67"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamSyndicate MMA
What's at stake
Antonina Shevchenko is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Roxanne Modafferi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1641
If they lose-19→ 1609
If they win+14→ 1573
If they lose-10→ 1549
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1660 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antonina ShevchenkoRoxanne Modafferi
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antonina Shevchenko70%
Roxanne Modafferi 30%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Antonina Shevchenko a 70% favorite over Roxanne Modafferi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Antonina Shevchenko holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1628 to 1559, a 69-point edge.
Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Antonina Shevchenko finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Roxanne Modafferi 36%.
Antonina Shevchenko and Roxanne Modafferi share 2 common opponents: Casey O'Neill and Andrea Lee.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.