Combat Edge Intelligence

Ariane Carnelossi vs Brianna Fortino

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-5-0Record9-3-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'2"Height4'11"
61"Reach62,0"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Inside Muay ThaiTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ariane CarnelossiNow 1625
If they win+16→ 1641
If they lose-16→ 1609
Brianna FortinoNow 1627
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.63
Sig. strikes / min
3.53
39%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.23
44%
Strike defense
57%
1.08
Takedown avg.
2.50
50%
Takedown accuracy
45%
23%
Takedown defense
67%
0.22
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ariane CarnelossiBrianna Fortino
15501600165020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (64%)
KO/TKO
2 (22%)
2 (14%)
Submission
3 (33%)
3 (21%)
Decision
4 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Brianna Fortino57%
Ariane Carnelossi 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Brianna Fortino a 57% favorite over Ariane Carnelossi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1625 vs 1627), separated by just 2 points.

Ariane Carnelossi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ariane Carnelossi finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Brianna Fortino 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.