Ariane Carnelossi vs Lupita Godinez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-5-0Record14-6-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'2"Height5'2"
61"Reach61"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Inside Muay ThaiTeamLobo Gym MMA
What's at stake
Lupita Godinez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Ariane Carnelossi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1643
If they lose-14→ 1611
If they win+14→ 1682
If they lose-18→ 1650
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ariane CarnelossiLupita Godinez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lupita Godinez60%
Ariane Carnelossi 40%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Lupita Godinez a 60% favorite over Ariane Carnelossi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Lupita Godinez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1668 to 1625, a 43-point edge.
Ariane Carnelossi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ariane Carnelossi finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Lupita Godinez 21%.
Ariane Carnelossi and Lupita Godinez share 1 common opponent: Angela Hill.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.