Combat Edge Intelligence

Ariane Carnelossi vs Talita Alencar

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-5-0Record8-1-1
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'2"Height5'1"
61"Reach58"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Inside Muay ThaiTeamTemple Martial Arts

What's at stake

Talita Alencar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Ariane Carnelossi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ariane CarnelossiNow 1625
If they win+18→ 1643
If they lose-14→ 1611
Talita AlencarNow 1668
If they win+14→ 1682
If they lose-18→ 1650

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.63
Sig. strikes / min
2.91
39%
Strike accuracy
38%
4.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.36
44%
Strike defense
56%
1.08
Takedown avg.
3.02
50%
Takedown accuracy
27%
23%
Takedown defense
67%
0.22
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Ariane CarnelossiTalita Alencar
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (64%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
2 (14%)
Submission
4 (50%)
3 (21%)
Decision
4 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Talita Alencar60%
Ariane Carnelossi 40%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Talita Alencar a 60% favorite over Ariane Carnelossi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Talita Alencar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1668 to 1625, a 43-point edge.

Ariane Carnelossi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Talita Alencar enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Ariane Carnelossi finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Talita Alencar 50%.

Ariane Carnelossi carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.