Ariane Lipski da Silva vs Montana De La Rosa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-12-0Record13-9-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'7"
67"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Lioness MMATeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
Ariane Lipski da Silva is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Montana De La Rosa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1644
If they lose-14→ 1620
If they win+18→ 1600
If they lose-14→ 1568
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1636 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1629 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ariane Lipski da SilvaMontana De La Rosa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ariane Lipski da Silva61%
Montana De La Rosa 39%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Ariane Lipski da Silva a 61% favorite over Montana De La Rosa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Ariane Lipski da Silva holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1634 to 1582, a 52-point edge.
Ariane Lipski da Silva finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Montana De La Rosa 69%.
Ariane Lipski da Silva and Montana De La Rosa share 1 common opponent: JJ Aldrich.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.