Combat Edge Intelligence

Armen Petrosyan vs Garreth McLellan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-7-0Record13-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
71"Reach72,0"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Academy MMATeamFightFit Militia

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Armen PetrosyanNow 1587
If they win+16→ 1603
If they lose-16→ 1571
Garreth McLellanNow 1583
If they win+16→ 1599
If they lose-16→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1646 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.84
Sig. strikes / min
3.56
53%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.94
53%
Strike defense
45%
0.17
Takedown avg.
1.15
0%
Takedown accuracy
22%
41%
Takedown defense
35%
0
Submission avg.
0.86

Trajectory

Armen PetrosyanGarreth McLellan
160016502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (70%)
KO/TKO
3 (23%)
0 (0%)
Submission
9 (69%)
3 (30%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Armen Petrosyan70%
Garreth McLellan 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Armen Petrosyan a 70% favorite over Garreth McLellan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1587 vs 1583), separated by just 4 points.

Armen Petrosyan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Garreth McLellan enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Armen Petrosyan finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Garreth McLellan 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.