Arnold Allen vs Movsar Evloev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-4-0Record20-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
70"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Tristar GymTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Movsar Evloev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Arnold Allen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1796
If they lose-9→ 1772
If they win+12→ 1871
If they lose-20→ 1839
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1735 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Arnold AllenMovsar Evloev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Movsar Evloev68%
Arnold Allen 32%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Movsar Evloev a 68% favorite over Arnold Allen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Movsar Evloev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1859 to 1781, a 78-point edge.
Movsar Evloev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Arnold Allen finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Movsar Evloev 35%.
Arnold Allen and Movsar Evloev share 1 common opponent: Nik Lentz.
Movsar Evloev carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.