Combat Edge Intelligence

Asu Almabayev vs Jose Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-3-0Record16-10-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height6'0"
65"Reach71"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
DAR Pro TeamTeamTwin Wolves MMA

What's at stake

Asu Almabayev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Jose Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Asu AlmabayevNow 1786
If they win+6→ 1792
If they lose-18→ 1768
Jose JohnsonNow 1608
If they win+18→ 1626
If they lose-6→ 1602

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1647 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.31
Sig. strikes / min
2.22
51%
Strike accuracy
58%
1.99
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.64
54%
Strike defense
53%
4.46
Takedown avg.
0.71
43%
Takedown accuracy
60%
44%
Takedown defense
39%
1.49
Submission avg.
0.71

Trajectory

Asu AlmabayevJose Johnson
160016501700175018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (13%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
11 (46%)
Submission
3 (19%)
10 (42%)
Decision
5 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Asu Almabayev92%
Jose Johnson 8%Elo baseline: 74%

The Combat Edge model makes Asu Almabayev a 92% favorite over Jose Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).

Asu Almabayev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1786 to 1608, a 178-point edge.

Asu Almabayev enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Jose Johnson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Asu Almabayev finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Jose Johnson 69%.

Jose Johnson carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.