Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-0Record36-6-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'5"
65"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight134 lbs
DAR Pro TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Kyoji Horiguchi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Asu Almabayev carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1799
If they lose-11→ 1775
If they win+11→ 1812
If they lose-13→ 1788
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Asu AlmabayevKyoji Horiguchi
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Asu Almabayev56%
Kyoji Horiguchi 44%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Asu Almabayev a 56% favorite over Kyoji Horiguchi in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kyoji Horiguchi's way (48%).
Kyoji Horiguchi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1801 to 1786, a 15-point edge.
Asu Almabayev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Asu Almabayev finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Kyoji Horiguchi 58%.
Asu Almabayev and Kyoji Horiguchi share 1 common opponent: Manel Kape.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.