Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi

Nov 21, 2026 · Paramount+

Combat Edge model forecast62%Asu Almabayev38%Kyoji HoriguchiFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 21, 2026

DivisionFlyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueABHA Arena

BroadcastParamount+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 21, 2026 — watch on Paramount+.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Asu AlmabayevZulfikhar |24-3-0Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji HoriguchiKyoji HoriguchiKarate Kid |36-6-0

Asu AlmabayevZulfikhar24-3-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

24-3-0Record36-6-0

32Age35

5'4"Height5'5"

65"Reach66"

125 lbsWeight134 lbs

FlyweightWeight ClassFlyweight

Kyoji HoriguchiKarate Kid36-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Kyoji Horiguchi owns a 18-point Elo edge (great). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Asu Almabayev and Kyoji Horiguchi across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Asu AlmabayevKyoji Horiguchi

Recent form

Asu AlmabayevW W W L W · +24 Elo last 5

WWWLW

Kyoji HoriguchiL W W W W · +18 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Elo edge

Asu Almabayev1785+12 last move

Kyoji Horiguchi1803-18 last move

Why they are ranked here

Asu Almabayev#6 of 195 active Flyweight fighters · 1785 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Ode Osbourne (rated 1634 at the time): +14.
Costliest loss: Lost to Manel Kape (rated 1684 at the time): -24.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +24 Elo in total.
Next places: 7 points behind #5 Tatsuro Taira, 28 ahead of #7 Brandon Moreno.

Kyoji Horiguchi#3 of 195 active Flyweight fighters · 1803 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Tagir Ulanbekov (rated 1761 at the time): +13.
Costliest loss: Lost to Manel Kape (rated 1727 at the time): -18.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +18 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #2 Muhammad Mokaev, 7 ahead of #4 Alexandre Pantoja.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

62%Asu Almabayev38%Kyoji Horiguchi

Model favoriteAsu Almabayev

Elo baseline47% for Asu Almabayev

Matchup adjustment+15 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Asu AlmabayevStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Asu Almabayev is 62%, after Elo alone favored Kyoji Horiguchi at 53%.

Current Elo ratings1785 · 1803Kyoji Horiguchi leads by 18 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1648 · 1650Kyoji Horiguchi faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth27 · 36 fightsKyoji Horiguchi has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesAsu Almabayev 2 · 2 Kyoji HoriguchiStrongest available gap: Submission average toward Asu Almabayev.

What's at stake

Asu AlmabayevNow 1785 · #6 Flyweight

Wins by decision+13→ 1798

Loses by decision-11→ 1774

Kyoji HoriguchiNow 1803 · #3 Flyweight

Wins by decision+11→ 1814

Loses by decision-13→ 1790

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Asu AlmabayevvsKyoji Horiguchi

Submission average

1.49vs0.11

Takedown average

4.46vs1.61

Sig. strikes landed per min

2.31vs3.77

Takedown defense

44%vs61%

Finishing profile

Asu Almabayevsubmission leads 46% of wins

Kyoji HoriguchiKO/TKO leads 42% of wins

Common opponents

Manel Kape Asu Almabayev: loss · TKO (Retirement) · Mar 1, 2025 Kyoji Horiguchi: loss · TKO (punches) · Jun 20, 2026

Tagir UlanbekovAsu Almabayev: loss · TKO (submission to punches) · Jan 28, 2017Kyoji Horiguchi: win · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · Nov 22, 2025

Tagir UlanbekovAsu Almabayev: loss · TKO (submission to punches) · Jan 28, 2017Kyoji Horiguchi: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Jun 21, 2025

Tale of the tape

Asu AlmabayevKyoji Horiguchi

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.31Sig. strikes landed per min3.77

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

51Sig. strike accuracy47

UFC flyweight average : 44%

1.99Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.13

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

54Sig. strike defense64

UFC flyweight average : 55%

4.46Takedown average1.61

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

43Takedown accuracy41

UFC flyweight average : 26%

44Takedown defense61

UFC flyweight average : 57%

1.49Submission average0.11

UFC flyweight average : 0.61

3Wins by knockout15

11Wins by submission6

10Wins by decision15

2Losses by knockout3

0Losses by submission1

1Losses by decision2

Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi is a scheduled Flyweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : PROCHAZKA VS STIRLING. Asu Almabayev enters with a 24-3-0 record and Kyoji Horiguchi enters with a 36-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.