Austen Lane vs Justin Tafa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-8-0Record7-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'6"Height6'0"
80"Reach74"
255 lbsWeight265 lbs
Bulldog BoxingTeamNTG Fight & Fitness
What's at stake
Justin Tafa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Austen Lane carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1592
If they lose-14→ 1560
If they win+14→ 1622
If they lose-18→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Austen LaneJustin Tafa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Tafa66%
Austen Lane 34%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Tafa a 66% favorite over Austen Lane in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Justin Tafa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1608 to 1574, a 34-point edge.
Austen Lane enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Austen Lane finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Justin Tafa 100%.
Austen Lane and Justin Tafa share 1 common opponent: Juan Adams.
Austen Lane carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.