Austin Ross vs Matheus Moraes
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Austin Ross66%
Matheus Moraes 34%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Austin Ross a 66% favorite over Matheus Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Austin Ross holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1580 to 1482, a 98-point edge.
Austin Ross enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Austin Ross finishes 33% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
3-2-0Record1-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"HeightTBD
-Reach-
185 lbsWeight220 lbs
What's at stake
Austin Ross is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +17 while a loss costs more — Matheus Moraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1597
If they lose-31→ 1549
If they win+31→ 1513
If they lose-17→ 1465
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1495 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Austin RossMatheus Moraes