Austin Ross vs Matheus Moraes

DateOct 23, 2026

DivisionLight Heavyweight

StatusScheduled

VenuePremier Theater at Foxwoods Resort Casino

BroadcastVICE TV

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, October 23, 2026 — watch on VICE TV.

US East (ET): Fri 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sat 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 12:00 PM
Your time

Austin Ross2-2-0Austin Ross vs Matheus MoraesMatheus Moraes1-0-0

Austin Ross2-2-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

2-2-0Record1-0-0

TBDAgeTBD

6'1"HeightTBD

TBDReachTBD

185 lbsWeight220 lbs

Light HeavyweightWeight ClassLight Heavyweight

Matheus Moraes1-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Austin Ross owns a 48-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Austin Ross and Matheus Moraes across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Austin RossMatheus Moraes

Recent form

Austin RossW W L L W · +5 Elo last 5

WWLLW

Matheus MoraesW L · +7 Elo last 2

Elo edge

Austin Ross1555+20 last move

Matheus Moraes1507+31 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

81%Austin Ross19%Matheus Moraes

Model favoriteAustin Ross

Elo baseline57% for Austin Ross

Matchup adjustment+24 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Austin RossStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Austin Ross leads the full model at 81%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 24 points.

Current Elo ratings1555 · 1507Austin Ross leads by 48 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1493 · 1500Matheus Moraes faced the stronger recent schedule (7 vs 2 sampled fights).

Elo record depth7 · 2 fightsAustin Ross has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Austin RossvsMatheus Moraes

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Austin Rossdecision leads 100% of wins

Matheus MoraesKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Austin RossMatheus Moraes

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC middleweight average : 3.85

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC middleweight average : 48%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC middleweight average : 3.82

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC middleweight average : 52%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC middleweight average : 1.69

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC middleweight average : 31%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC middleweight average : 58%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC middleweight average : 0.69

0Wins by knockout1

0Wins by submission0

2Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

1Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision0

Austin Ross vs Matheus Moraes is a scheduled Light Heavyweight fight on LFA 244 : WOODLEY VS HAVENER. Austin Ross enters with a 2-2-0 record and Matheus Moraes enters with a 1-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.