Billy Quarantillo vs Kyle Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record17-7-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
70"Reach 71"
145 lbsWeight149 lbs
Gracie Tampa SouthTeamHouse of Champions MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1690
If they lose-12→ 1666
If they win+12→ 1681
If they lose-12→ 1657
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1686 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Billy QuarantilloKyle Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyle Nelson62%
Billy Quarantillo 38%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Nelson a 62% favorite over Billy Quarantillo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Billy Quarantillo's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1678 vs 1669), separated by just 9 points.
Billy Quarantillo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Billy Quarantillo finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Nelson 59%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.