Combat Edge Intelligence

Bo Nickal vs Dan Henderson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-1-0Record32-15-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
76"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team Happy ValleyTeamTeam Quest

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Bo NickalNow 1745
If they win+16→ 1761
If they lose-16→ 1729
Dan HendersonNow 1740
If they win+12→ 1752
If they lose-12→ 1728

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1635 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1739 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.35
Sig. strikes / min
2.44
61%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.70
60%
Strike defense
52%
3.10
Takedown avg.
1.52
56%
Takedown accuracy
53%
100%
Takedown defense
58%
2.48
Submission avg.
0.34

Trajectory

Bo NickalDan Henderson
170017502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (44%)
KO/TKO
17 (53%)
4 (44%)
Submission
1 (3%)
1 (11%)
Decision
14 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Bo Nickal71%
Dan Henderson 29%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Bo Nickal a 71% favorite over Dan Henderson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1745 vs 1740), separated by just 5 points.

Bo Nickal enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Bo Nickal finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Dan Henderson 56%.

Bo Nickal carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.