Bobby Southworth vs Sam Hoger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-0Record10-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
228 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1638 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamMiletich Martial Arts
What's at stake
Sam Hoger is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Bobby Southworth carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1595
If they lose-14→ 1563
If they win+14→ 1641
If they lose-18→ 1609
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Bobby SouthworthSam Hoger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sam Hoger62%
Bobby Southworth 38%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Sam Hoger a 62% favorite over Bobby Southworth in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Sam Hoger holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1627 to 1577, a 50-point edge.
Sam Hoger enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Bobby Southworth finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Sam Hoger 90%.
Bobby Southworth and Sam Hoger share 1 common opponent: Vernon White.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.