Brandon Davis vs Rafael Aronov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-13-0Record9-4-0
BantamweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
72"Reach-
135 lbsWeight171 lbs
Alan Belcher MMA ClubTeamSpirit
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1597
If they lose-12→ 1573
If they win+16→ 1594
If they lose-16→ 1562
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brandon DavisRafael Aronov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Aronov73%
Brandon Davis 27%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Aronov a 73% favorite over Brandon Davis in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brandon Davis's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1585 vs 1578), separated by just 7 points.
Brandon Davis enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Rafael Aronov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Brandon Davis finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Aronov 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.