Renato Moicano21-8-1
Tom Nolan12-1-0
Strong model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Tom Nolan won
29%Renato Moicano71%Tom Nolan
Combat Edge Model · Full card
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan predictions
Model win probabilities for every bout on UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan (October 31, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.
12Total bouts
12Frozen forecasts
1Close matchups
5Model / Elo splits
5Strong model leans
LockedFight card started
Card intelligence
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Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.
Showing all 12 matchups.
Main card
Main card predictions
5 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.
Randy Brown20-9-0
Jacobe Smith14-0-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Jacobe Smith won
35%Randy Brown65%Jacobe Smith
Ode Osbourne13-10-0
Cody Durden19-11-1
Close matchupModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Cody Durden won
48%Ode Osbourne52%Cody Durden
Yana Santos17-9-0
Luana Santos12-2-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Luana Santos won
27%Yana Santos73%Luana Santos
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani12-2-0
Farman Hasanov5-1-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel miss · Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani won
41%Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani59%Farman Hasanov
Prelims
Prelims predictions
7 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.
Francis Marshall10-4-0
Dakota Hope12-2-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel miss · Dakota Hope won
58%Francis Marshall42%Dakota Hope
Rodrigo Sezinando9-2-0
Theodor Berggren8-5-0
Strong model leanModel / Elo splitModel miss · Rodrigo Sezinando won
19%Rodrigo Sezinando81%Theodor Berggren
Julian Erosa32-13-0
Jeong Yeong Lee11-4-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel miss · Julian Erosa won
37%Julian Erosa63%Jeong Yeong Lee
Zach Reese11-4-0
Mickey Gall7-8-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Zach Reese won
78%Zach Reese22%Mickey Gall
Nick Klein6-4-0
Joseph Kropschot10-3-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Joseph Kropschot won
44%Nick Klein56%Joseph Kropschot
Talita Alencar8-2-1
Piera Rodriguez13-2-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Piera Rodriguez won
33%Talita Alencar67%Piera Rodriguez
Lucia Szabová13-0-0
Tainara Lisboa7-5-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Lucia Szabová won
74%Lucia Szabová26%Tainara Lisboa