Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Ortega vs Renato Moicano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record21-7-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
69"Reach72″
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Black HouseTeamFirst Fight Center

What's at stake

Renato Moicano is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Brian Ortega carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brian OrtegaNow 1716
If they win+17→ 1733
If they lose-15→ 1701
Renato MoicanoNow 1743
If they win+11→ 1754
If they lose-13→ 1730

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.84
Sig. strikes / min
4.17
37%
Strike accuracy
49%
6.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.57
49%
Strike defense
60%
0.93
Takedown avg.
1.67
25%
Takedown accuracy
42%
55%
Takedown defense
63%
0.93
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Brian OrtegaRenato Moicano
1700175020252026

Win method breakdown

3 (19%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
8 (50%)
Submission
11 (52%)
5 (31%)
Decision
8 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Renato Moicano62%
Brian Ortega 38%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Renato Moicano a 62% favorite over Brian Ortega in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Renato Moicano holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1743 to 1716, a 27-point edge.

Brian Ortega enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brian Ortega finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Renato Moicano 62%.

Renato Moicano carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.