Renato Moicano vs Brian Ortega

DateSep 19, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueCrypto.com Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, September 19, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Renato MoicanoMoicano |21-7-1Renato Moicano vs Brian OrtegaBrian OrtegaT-City |16-5-0

Renato MoicanoMoicano21-7-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

21-7-1Record16-5-0

37Age35

5'11"Height5'9"

72″Reach69"

156 lbsWeight155 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Brian OrtegaT-City16-5-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Renato Moicano owns a 28-point Elo edge (good). Renato Moicano shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Renato Moicano and Brian Ortega across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Renato MoicanoBrian Ortega

Recent form

Renato MoicanoW L L W W · +27 Elo last 5

WLLWW

Brian OrtegaL L W L L · -38 Elo last 5

LLWLL

Elo edge

Renato Moicano1743+15 last move

Brian Ortega1715-11 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

60%Renato Moicano40%Brian Ortega

Model favoriteRenato Moicano

Elo baseline54% for Renato Moicano

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Renato MoicanoStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Renato Moicano leads the full model at 60%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 6 points.

Current Elo ratings1743 · 1715Renato Moicano leads by 28 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1736 · 1776Brian Ortega faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth26 · 18 fightsRenato Moicano has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesRenato Moicano 3 · 1 Brian OrtegaStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Renato Moicano.

Stat advantages

Renato MoicanovsBrian Ortega

Takedown accuracy

12%vs2%

Takedown average

1.68vs0.93

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

3.55vs6.38

Submission average

0.56vs0.93

Finishing profile

Renato Moicanosubmission leads 52% of wins

Brian Ortegasubmission leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

Chan Sung Jung Renato Moicano: loss · TKO (punches) · Jun 22, 2019 Brian Ortega: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Oct 17, 2020

Chan Sung Jung Renato Moicano: loss · TKO (punches) · Jun 22, 2019Brian Ortega: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Dec 21, 2019

Cub Swanson Renato Moicano: win · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · Aug 4, 2018 Brian Ortega: win · Submission (Guillotine Choke) · Dec 9, 2017

Tale of the tape

Renato MoicanoBrian Ortega

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.10Sig. strikes landed per min3.84

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

49Sig. strike accuracy37

UFC lightweight average : 46%

3.55Sig. strikes absorbed per min6.38

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

60Sig. strike defense49

UFC lightweight average : 53%

1.68Takedown average0.93

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

12Takedown accuracy2

UFC lightweight average : 29%

64Takedown defense55

UFC lightweight average : 59%

0.56Submission average0.93

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

2Wins by knockout3

11Wins by submission8

8Wins by decision5

3Losses by knockout2

2Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision3

Renato Moicano vs Brian Ortega is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC 331 : VAN VS PANTOJA 2. Renato Moicano enters with a 21-7-1 record and Brian Ortega enters with a 16-5-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.