Bruna Ellen vs Hilarie Rose
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Bruna Ellen56%
Hilarie Rose 44%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Bruna Ellen a 56% favorite over Hilarie Rose in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Hilarie Rose's way (43%).
Hilarie Rose holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1570 to 1518, a 52-point edge.
Bruna Ellen enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Hilarie Rose enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Bruna Ellen finishes 14% of wins inside the distance, Hilarie Rose 46%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
7-6-0Record13-7-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'3"
65"Reach-
115 lbsWeight116 lbs
What's at stake
Hilarie Rose is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Bruna Ellen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1536
If they lose-14→ 1504
If they win+14→ 1584
If they lose-18→ 1552
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1539 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1490 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Bruna EllenHilarie Rose