Brunno Ferreira vs Paulo Costa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-4-0Record16-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72"Reach72"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Brazilian TKO· 1650 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamTeam Borracha
What's at stake
Paulo Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Brunno Ferreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1740
If they lose-15→ 1708
If they win+15→ 1769
If they lose-17→ 1737
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1683 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1747 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brunno FerreiraPaulo Costa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa53%
Brunno Ferreira 47%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 53% favorite over Brunno Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Paulo Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1754 to 1723, a 31-point edge.
Brunno Ferreira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Brunno Ferreira finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Costa 81%.
Brunno Ferreira and Paulo Costa share 1 common opponent: Marvin Vettori.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.