Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryan Barberena vs Matt Brown

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Matt Brown
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Matt Brown

“The Immortal”

24-19-0WelterweightUFC

1607Solid

Tale of the tape

18-12-0Record24-19-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
72"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gym-OTeamImmortal Fight Team

What's at stake

Bryan Barberena is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matt Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bryan BarberenaNow 1627
If they win+11→ 1638
If they lose-13→ 1614
Matt BrownNow 1607
If they win+13→ 1620
If they lose-11→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1645 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.35
Sig. strikes / min
3.76
48%
Strike accuracy
55%
4.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.92
44%
Strike defense
55%
0.13
Takedown avg.
1.68
22%
Takedown accuracy
47%
50%
Takedown defense
64%
0.27
Submission avg.
1.30

Trajectory

Bryan BarberenaMatt Brown
16001650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (61%)
KO/TKO
16 (67%)
2 (11%)
Submission
6 (25%)
5 (28%)
Decision
2 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Bryan Barberena53%
Matt Brown 47%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Bryan Barberena a 53% favorite over Matt Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Bryan Barberena holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1627 to 1607, a 20-point edge.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Bryan Barberena finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Matt Brown 92%.

Matt Brown carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.