Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryan Barberena vs Rafael dos Anjos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

18-12-0Record32-17-0
MiddleweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
72"Reach70"
185 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gym-OTeamRDA Academy

What's at stake

Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Bryan Barberena carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bryan BarberenaNow 1627
If they win+15→ 1642
If they lose-9→ 1618
Rafael dos AnjosNow 1713
If they win+9→ 1722
If they lose-15→ 1698

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.35
Sig. strikes / min
3.48
48%
Strike accuracy
47%
4.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.23
44%
Strike defense
60%
0.13
Takedown avg.
1.95
22%
Takedown accuracy
36%
50%
Takedown defense
55%
0.27
Submission avg.
0.57

Trajectory

Bryan BarberenaRafael dos Anjos
165017001750202220232024

Win method breakdown

11 (61%)
KO/TKO
5 (16%)
2 (11%)
Submission
11 (34%)
5 (28%)
Decision
16 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael dos Anjos56%
Bryan Barberena 44%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael dos Anjos a 56% favorite over Bryan Barberena in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1627, a 86-point edge.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Bryan Barberena finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.

Bryan Barberena carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.