Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryan Barberena vs Sage Northcutt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-12-0Record12-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
72"Reach71,5"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gym-OTeamTeam Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 rated

What's at stake

Sage Northcutt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Bryan Barberena carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bryan BarberenaNow 1627
If they win+13→ 1640
If they lose-11→ 1616
Sage NorthcuttNow 1663
If they win+14→ 1677
If they lose-18→ 1645

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.35
Sig. strikes / min
3.58
48%
Strike accuracy
52%
4.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.96
44%
Strike defense
59%
0.13
Takedown avg.
1.81
22%
Takedown accuracy
35%
50%
Takedown defense
42%
0.27
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Bryan BarberenaSage Northcutt
16501700202220232024

Win method breakdown

11 (61%)
KO/TKO
5 (42%)
2 (11%)
Submission
4 (33%)
5 (28%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Sage Northcutt75%
Bryan Barberena 25%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Sage Northcutt a 75% favorite over Bryan Barberena in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Sage Northcutt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1663 to 1627, a 36-point edge.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Bryan Barberena finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Sage Northcutt 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.