Bryce Mitchell vs Ilia Topuria
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-3-0Record17-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
70"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Barata MMATeamCliment Club
What's at stake
Ilia Topuria is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Bryce Mitchell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1794
If they lose-14→ 1762
If they win+14→ 1843
If they lose-18→ 1811
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1700 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1757 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bryce MitchellIlia Topuria
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ilia Topuria51%
Bryce Mitchell 49%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Ilia Topuria a 51% favorite over Bryce Mitchell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Ilia Topuria holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1829 to 1776, a 53-point edge.
Bryce Mitchell enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Bryce Mitchell finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Ilia Topuria 88%.
Bryce Mitchell and Ilia Topuria share 1 common opponent: Josh Emmett.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.