Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryce Mitchell vs Kron Gracie

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-3-0Record5-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'9"
70"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Barata MMATeamKron Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Bryce Mitchell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Kron Gracie carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bryce MitchellNow 1776
If they win+8→ 1784
If they lose-24→ 1752
Kron GracieNow 1591
If they win+36→ 1627
If they lose-12→ 1579

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1700 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1626 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.27
Sig. strikes / min
3.74
59%
Strike accuracy
45%
1.60
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.82
59%
Strike defense
53%
3.24
Takedown avg.
0.47
36%
Takedown accuracy
25%
33%
Takedown defense
0%
1.19
Submission avg.
0.47

Trajectory

Bryce MitchellKron Gracie
1600165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (5%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
10 (53%)
Submission
5 (100%)
8 (42%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Bryce Mitchell92%
Kron Gracie 8%Elo baseline: 74%

The Combat Edge model makes Bryce Mitchell a 92% favorite over Kron Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).

Bryce Mitchell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1776 to 1591, a 185-point edge.

Bryce Mitchell enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Kron Gracie enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Bryce Mitchell finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Kron Gracie 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.