Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryce Mitchell vs Matt Sayles

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-3-0Record8-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
70"Reach68"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Barata MMATeamAlliance MMA

What's at stake

Bryce Mitchell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Matt Sayles carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bryce MitchellNow 1776
If they win+9→ 1785
If they lose-23→ 1753
Matt SaylesNow 1612
If they win+23→ 1635
If they lose-9→ 1603

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1700 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.27
Sig. strikes / min
4.83
59%
Strike accuracy
42%
1.60
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
59%
Strike defense
62%
3.24
Takedown avg.
0.36
36%
Takedown accuracy
17%
33%
Takedown defense
82%
1.19
Submission avg.
0.72

Trajectory

Bryce MitchellMatt Sayles
16001650170017502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (5%)
KO/TKO
6 (75%)
10 (53%)
Submission
1 (13%)
8 (42%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Bryce Mitchell88%
Matt Sayles 12%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Bryce Mitchell a 88% favorite over Matt Sayles in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Bryce Mitchell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1776 to 1612, a 164-point edge.

Bryce Mitchell enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Matt Sayles enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Bryce Mitchell finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Matt Sayles 88%.

Bryce Mitchell carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.