Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-3-0Record8-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
70"Reach74"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Barata MMATeamEntram Gym

What's at stake

Bryce Mitchell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Santiago Luna carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bryce MitchellNow 1776
If they win+11→ 1787
If they lose-21→ 1755
Santiago LunaNow 1662
If they win+32→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1646

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1700 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.27
Sig. strikes / min
8.20
59%
Strike accuracy
55%
1.60
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.82
59%
Strike defense
72%
3.24
Takedown avg.
4.21
36%
Takedown accuracy
83%
33%
Takedown defense
50%
1.19
Submission avg.
0.84

Trajectory

Bryce MitchellSantiago Luna
16001700202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (5%)
KO/TKO
3 (38%)
10 (53%)
Submission
4 (50%)
8 (42%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Bryce Mitchell61%
Santiago Luna 39%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Bryce Mitchell a 61% favorite over Santiago Luna in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Bryce Mitchell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1776 to 1662, a 114-point edge.

Bryce Mitchell enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Bryce Mitchell finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Santiago Luna 88%.

Santiago Luna carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.