Carla Esparza vs Cynthia Calvillo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record10-6-1
StrawweightDivisionFlyweight
5'1"Height5'4"
63"Reach64"
115 lbsWeight119 lbs
Team OyamaTeamTiger Muay Thai
What's at stake
Carla Esparza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Cynthia Calvillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1670
If they lose-19→ 1638
If they win+19→ 1608
If they lose-13→ 1576
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carla EsparzaCynthia Calvillo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carla Esparza66%
Cynthia Calvillo 34%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Carla Esparza a 66% favorite over Cynthia Calvillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Carla Esparza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1657 to 1589, a 68-point edge.
Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carla Esparza finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Cynthia Calvillo 50%.
Carla Esparza and Cynthia Calvillo share 1 common opponent: Marina Rodriguez.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.