Carla Esparza vs Joanna Jędrzejczyk
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record16-5-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'1"Height5'6"
63"Reach65"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Team OyamaTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Joanna Jędrzejczyk is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Carla Esparza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1674
If they lose-15→ 1642
If they win+15→ 1701
If they lose-17→ 1669
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carla EsparzaJoanna Jędrzejczyk
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joanna Jędrzejczyk66%
Carla Esparza 34%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Joanna Jędrzejczyk a 66% favorite over Carla Esparza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Joanna Jędrzejczyk holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1686 to 1657, a 29-point edge.
Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joanna Jędrzejczyk enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carla Esparza finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Joanna Jędrzejczyk 31%.
Carla Esparza and Joanna Jędrzejczyk share 4 common opponents: Tecia Pennington, Weili Zhang, Rose Namajunas and Michelle Waterson-Gomez.
Joanna Jędrzejczyk carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.