Carla Esparza vs Rose Namajunas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record14-8-0
StrawweightDivisionFlyweight
5'1"Height5'5"
63"Reach65"
115 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team OyamaTeam303 Training Center
What's at stake
Rose Namajunas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Carla Esparza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1675
If they lose-14→ 1643
If they win+14→ 1709
If they lose-18→ 1677
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carla EsparzaRose Namajunas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rose Namajunas75%
Carla Esparza 25%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Rose Namajunas a 75% favorite over Carla Esparza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Rose Namajunas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1695 to 1657, a 38-point edge.
Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carla Esparza finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Rose Namajunas 50%.
Carla Esparza and Rose Namajunas share 1 common opponent: Weili Zhang.
Rose Namajunas carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.