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Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlos Candelario vs Souhil Arezki

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record4-0-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'7"
68"ReachTBD
129 lbsWeight125 lbs
Underdog Brazilian Jiu-JitsuTeamUS Metro Bizot· 1558 avg Elo · 8 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carlos CandelarioNow 1594
If they win+16→ 1610
If they lose-16→ 1578
Souhil ArezkiNow 1595
If they win+24→ 1619
If they lose-24→ 1571

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.97
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
47%
Strike accuracy
Not available
5.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
44%
Strike defense
Not available
2.28
Takedown avg.
Not available
36%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
54%
Takedown defense
Not available
0.28
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Carlos CandelarioSouhil Arezki
15501600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
2 (50%)
3 (38%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (38%)
Decision
2 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Carlos Candelario53%
Souhil Arezki 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Candelario a 53% favorite over Souhil Arezki in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Souhil Arezki's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1594 vs 1595), separated by just 1 points.

Carlos Candelario enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Souhil Arezki enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Carlos Candelario finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Souhil Arezki 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.